Washington post dating recession
The pressure is on to call this recession over and done with – this much can be seen given the speed with which the news outlets moved to accentuate the headline GDP figure, while hiding the fact that it was completely made up of increased government debt.
The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) has been given the responsibility to make that call, and we think you need to see the basis on which it will be made.
Although these indicators are the most important measures considered by the NBER in developing its business cycle chronology, there is no fixed rule about which other measures contribute information to the process.
What might be interesting to you is how GDP, personal income, and employment looked when the last call was made – as shown in the three charts below.
Other theories posit that companies bracing for an even longer economic downturn, or perhaps the economy was even weaker than official government data showed.
And, this statement is by the guy who figured out the United States could keep the dollar as world reserve currency by manipulating the price of gold.
There are a number of economists who sit on the committee making the call, including Christina Romer (she’s on leave now) one of the Messiah’s economic advisers.
The committee places particular emphasis on two monthly measures of activity across the entire economy: (1) personal income less transfer payments, in real terms and (2) employment.
Real federal government consumption expenditures and gross investment increased 10.9 percent in the second quarter, in contrast to a decrease of 4.3 percent in the first.